Socioeconomic Analysis
In 1982, A.L. Sorkin estimated that each avoided unnecessary coastal storm evacuation would save about $30,000 for each 1,000 people that did not need to evacuate. Other estimates, such as the commonly stated hurricane evacuation costs of $1M dollars per mile of coastline, also demonstrate the tremendous socioeconomic costs associated with hurricane preparedness measures. Therefore, the availability and use of improved decision-support tools could have some associated, measurable socioeconomic benefits.
Hurricane Ivan is currently ranked number four on the Insurance Information Institute's "Top 10 Most Costly World Insurance Losses," due to the combined coastal and land-based losses and resulting impacts to oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico. Total Losses within AL, FL, GA, OH, PA, NY, NC, and 8 other states are valued at $7.1 million dollars. According to the Pensacola News Journal, insurance claims within Escambia and Santa Rosa County, FL alone totaled over $822M and an additional $104M in assistance was granted by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The Florida Department of Transportation spent over $136M in Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties to remove the significant amounts of debris that had collected in the area and to repair damaged bridges, while local utility companies had damages nearing $150M.
Socioeconomic Benefits of Improved Forecasts
An initial approach to determining socioeconomic benefits of improved storm surge forecasts will be to compare potential evacuation scenarios based on potential new products and services that may result from this project, compared to one or more actual evacuation scenarios in the study area. This approach would be supplemented by the application of historical data from past evacuation restudies. The project team will work to better define this approach over the first year of the project.
It is recognized that there could be significant secondary benefits of this project, based on increased efficiencies from:
- within-NOAA and inter-agency program integration
- integrated observations or enhanced data management/ dissemination
- newly-formed and strengthened partnerships at the local, state, and federal level
Wherever feasible and practical, the project team will identify measurable parameters for socioeconomic benefits analysis. This analysis will be a focus over the three years of project implementation.
Reference
Sorkin, A.L., 1982: Economic Aspects of Natural Hazards. Heath and Company, 178 pp.
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