Forecasting and Predictions
Storm Surge
The NOAA Office of Coast Survey will develop a demonstration storm surge
model for the Pensacola region that will provide high resolution in the
coastal regions to represent the bathymetric and topographic features that govern flow. The
model will couple coastal, estuarine, and inland flooding effects for a
comprehensive representation of potential storm surge impacts. Best available
topography and bathymetry data will be incorporated into the model to account
for any recent changes within these coastal areas (e.g., due to the effects
of earlier storms such as Ivan in 2004). The model will be tested in the
demonstration area of Pensacola, Florida.
The Storm Surge Partnership Project will work with other groups within NOAA to
evaluate feedback from both end user and technical groups gathered from
surveys and workshops. This information will be used to recommend storm surge
modeling developments. Recent user-needs workshops have been convened and a
survey of the storm surge technical and user communities was circulated. The
results of these outreach efforts identified a series of short- and long-term
modeling requirements that should be met by operational storm surge
predictions. In late 2005, a Technical Workshop will be convened to assess
state of the art modeling capabilities and explore mechanisms to address
priority needs. This workshop will develop recommended approaches and
mechanisms to improve operational storm surge forecast models within NOAA and
to engage the extra-NOAA Model R&D community in a strategic and
community-based approach to storm surge modeling.
Sea Level Rise
A long-term objective of this project is to use the products and storm surge
inundation model to research the potential impacts of sea-level rise. The
NOAA National Centers for Coastal and Ocean Science will work in the
demonstration area (Pensacola, Florida) to provide the necessary ecological
models that can be combined with the previously developed elevation data and
hydrodynamic and flooding models to predict the ecological effects of
projected sea level rise. The result will be a coupling of the elevation
model and hydrodynamic and flooding models with ecological models to
demonstrate landscape responses relevant to critical natural resources.
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