Coastal Services Center

Managing the threats from sea level rise to San Francisco Bay and development along its shoreline has been identified as one of the major challenges the region will face in the 21st century. After a three-year initiative, area coastal managers recently approved policies to address climate change, with a specific focus on sea level rise.

“This is a framework for selecting adaptation strategies to address key vulnerabilities and risks at various scales and time frames,” says Steve Goldbeck, acting executive director for the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission.

On October 6, 2011, after three years, three proposed language changes, a lengthy public comment period, and 35 public hearings, meetings, and workshops, the commission voted unanimously to amend the San Francisco Bay Plan to more broadly address climate change adaptation.

In the near term, the amendment means the commission can require applicants to develop resilient designs and adaptation strategies when planning shoreline areas or designing larger shoreline projects within its limited jurisdiction.

Ultimately, Goldbeck says, effective adaptation will require strategies that integrate climate mitigation and adaptation efforts regionally. To do this, the commission is helping facilitate a collaborative process to develop a regional strategy to address sea level rise and other adaptation challenges in the Bay Area.

Rising Water

Climate change has the potential to dramatically impact the economy, environment, and quality of life in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area, which is home to about seven million people.

While efforts are already underway in the area and state to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate climate change, Goldbeck notes that sea levels in San Francisco Bay have risen nearly eight inches over the past century, and scientists agree that the rate of area sea level rise is accelerating.

While exact future increases in sea level rise are uncertain, the commission’s most recent report summarizing the latest scientific research on climate change shows that 330 square miles of low-lying land around the Bay may be vulnerable to sea level rise over the next century.

This means that flooding threatens the long-term viability of neighborhoods, job centers, transportation, water and wastewater infrastructure, schools, fire stations, and vital ecosystem services.

“We found that over a quarter million bay residences could be inundated, as well as a good chunk of Silicon Valley, which is home to Google and other Internet giants,” Goldbeck says. “The Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation estimated that we could be facing $60 billion just in replacement values for infrastructure, displaced residents, goods and services—and that would be a gross underestimation of the actual impact. These are real, potential impacts.”

He adds, “While mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions is essential, adapting to climate change and its impacts is unavoidable.”

One of the First

The amendment to the Bay Plan is really an update to the commission’s existing sea level rise policies, which were adopted in 1989, Goldbeck says. The Bay Conservation and Development Commission was one of the first public agencies in the country to address the issue of sea level rise when making permit decisions and providing policy advice to local governments.

“Back 20 years ago when the idea of sea level rise driven by climate change came onto our radar screen, we realized we needed to assess it and come up with strategies,” Goldbeck says. “At that time, we went through the process of looking at what the threat was, and there was a whole lot of uncertainty.”

He adds, “Today, there’s still uncertainty, but it’s hugely different because the science is so much improved and we’re already seeing impacts from sea level rise. These new policies bring us to where we are today, which is a better understanding of what we face and better information on adaptation strategies.”

Feeling Vulnerable

In 2009, the commission released its regional sea level rise vulnerability assessment. In addition to providing extensive background information on the most current scientific research on climate change, the report contained maps depicting the low-lying areas around the Bay that could be vulnerable to future flooding from sea level rise and storm surge.

Along with the background report, the staff provided a preliminary recommendation on proposed Bay Plan amendments to address climate change.

With the assessment in hand, the commission began an effort to help prepare the region for the changes to the shorelines of the Bay and the related impacts.

“We started going out and talking to people in the region about it,” Goldbeck says. “The maps showed hundreds of square miles of inundation and caught people’s attention. It was also very controversial.”

Public Process

The commission held its first public hearing on the preliminary staff recommendation on May 7, 2009. To respond to requests for more time for public review and input, the commission held three more public hearings and three public workshops, and kept the public comment period open for three months.

After two more staff recommendations, public outreach and comment periods were held to address the public concerns. The staff worked with local governments, business interests, and environmental organizations to further refine the amendment language.

In all, beginning in April 2009, the commission held 35 public hearings, workshops, and meetings before approving the amendment on October 6, 2011.

Positive Controversy

“When we first put this out, we’d done a lot of work on it and made ourselves very knowledgeable about what the state of the science was,” Goldbeck says. “What we didn’t realize was that everyone else wasn’t as focused on this as we were and didn’t have the same level of understanding. It was hard for them to grasp what we were saying about it and what we wanted to do about it, and it raised a lot of concerns.”

He adds, “Ultimately, we were able to use that controversy as a positive thing. It brought attention to the subject, and we were able to use that to teach what the issues are and why there’s a need for response. Before, people weren’t paying attention at all. By the end, we were all smarter on the topic.”

“At the end of the day,” he says, “it was broadly supported.”

Case by Case

The policies direct the commission to continue to evaluate each project on a case-by-case basis. However, the policies in the San Francisco Bay Plan that generally discourage building in shoreline areas that are vulnerable to current or future flooding have been modified. The new policies encourage development in suitable low-lying areas provided that flood risks are addressed, and encourage habitat preservation and enhancement in suitable areas.

The new policies also call for the formulation of a regional sea level rise adaptation strategy to protect critical shoreline development and natural ecosystems.

“Over the long term,” Goldbeck says, “we call for policies to be integrated in a regional strategy for sea level rise that should be coordinated by the Joint Policy Committee, composed of our and three other regional agencies, and including local governments, environmental interest groups, and economic interest groups. That’s what we have to do today.”

He adds, “It’s been a lot of hard work, but it’s been very satisfying. We look forward to trying to determine how we’re going to live with a rising Bay and still have a prospering regional economy and resilient wetlands and natural areas. We think we really can live with the Bay as it changes. And that’s the challenge that we face.”

For more information on the San Francisco Bay Plan amendment and new sea level rise policies, contact Steve Goldbeck at (415) 352-3611 or steveg@bcdc.ca.gov. To read the resolution and learn more, visit www.bcdc.ca.gov/proposed_bay_plan/bp_amend_1-08.shtml.