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Coastal Storms Program
Northeast Florida > Navigation SafetySt. Johns River Circulation ModelReal-Time and Forecast River ConditionsCoastal and emergency managers need to know actual and forecasted river conditions to effectively plan for, evacuate from, and respond to coastal flooding and storm surge. As part of the Coastal Storms Program, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Office of Coast Survey has applied a circulation model to the St. Johns River that was originally developed by the St. Johns River Water Management District. This model provides the actual and forecasted river and estuarine conditions, including information on water levels, currents, temperature, and salinity from the river's entrance at Mayport south to Buffalo Bluff. The routine information from this forecast system is critical for maintaining safe and efficient marine navigation. Storm events in the St. Johns River region increase the risk of hazardous materials being released from land-based facilities. Hazardous materials in transit also are at risk. To address these risks, computer-based trajectory analysis tools have been developed to provide the response and planning community with a means to test hazardous materials release scenarios in the marine environment and evaluate associated vulnerabilities. Where the Project Is NowResults from the St. Johns River Operational Forecast System are available at www.co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/ofs/sjofs/products.shtml. The model provides river conditions every hour and provides 36-hour forecasts (of river conditions) four times a day. Products include time series graphs of water levels, currents, and winds at critical locations. Annotated maps of water levels, currents, temperature, and salinity for the area covered by the model. The circulation model makes use of real-time operational observations (including water level, temperature and salinity, meteorological, and river gauge data), boundary conditions from coastal ocean models, freshwater inputs from watershed forecast models, and operational weather-forecast models. For Additional InformationFrank Aikman |
